Insights

Cash-flow Forecast

Thirteen weeks of cash, and what changes it. Projected Amazon settlements and recurring Mercury payments, week by week.

Forecast startsOct 8, 2026BasisTrailing 8 weeks of Amazon activity + recurring Mercury paymentsStarting balanceOperating cash (checking accounts)

Ending cash

$283,739

Week 13 · +$1,442 (+0.5%) vs today

Lowest balance

$269,416

Week 6 · week of Nov 12

Total inflows

$56,476

Amazon $36,203Wholesale $20,273

Total outflows

$55,034

Inventory $38,149Payroll $8,502

Cash balance, next 13 weeks

Cash ends week 13 at $283,739, $1,442 more than today. The low point is $269,416 in week 6.

Closing balanceLikely rangeLowest week

Weekly net cash

Money in above the line, money out below it. 6 of 13 weeks bring in more than they pay out.

InflowsOutflows

Scenario

Move a lever and every figure on the page updates.

Include savings & treasury reserves

Adds $349,312 held in 3 savings accounts to the starting balance, plus the monthly Treasury yield.

Ending cash vs baseline$0

Lowest balance vs baseline$0

You're looking at the baseline. Move any lever to compare.

Week by week

USD, whole dollars. Outflows are negative. Select a week to see the payments behind it.

Week	Dates	Opening	Amazon	Wholesale	Interest	Inventory	Payroll	Operating	Net	Closing
	Oct 8 – Oct 14	282,296	3,377	—	—	−10,543	—	−349	−7,515	274,781
	Oct 15 – Oct 21	274,781	—	—	—	—	—	−1,500	−1,500	273,281
	Oct 22 – Oct 28	273,281	3,853	6,758	—	—	—	−250	10,361	283,642
	Oct 29 – Nov 4	283,642	—	—	—	—	−2,834	−612	−3,446	280,196
	Nov 5 – Nov 11	280,196	5,147	—	—	−10,543	—	−250	−5,645	274,551
Lowest	Nov 12 – Nov 18	274,551	—	—	—	−4,786	—	−349	−5,135	269,416
	Nov 19 – Nov 25	269,416	5,147	6,758	—	—	—	−1,500	10,405	279,821
	Nov 26 – Dec 2	279,821	—	—	—	—	−2,834	−559	−3,393	276,428
	Dec 3 – Dec 9	276,428	6,226	—	—	−1,735	—	−303	4,188	280,616
	Dec 10 – Dec 16	280,616	—	—	—	−10,543	—	−349	−10,892	269,725
	Dec 17 – Dec 23	269,725	6,226	—	—	—	—	−1,500	4,726	274,451
	Dec 24 – Dec 30	274,451	—	6,758	—	—	—	−250	6,508	280,958
	Dec 31 – Jan 6	280,958	6,226	—	—	—	−2,834	−612	2,780	283,739
13 weeks		282,296	36,203	20,273	—	−38,149	−8,502	−8,383	1,442	283,739

Next 14 days

Scheduled and projected cash movements through Oct 21.

Net

−$9,015

Assumptions

What the forecast takes as given, in plain language.

Amazon fees: 29.7% of sales — referral, FBA, service and storage fees over the trailing 8 weeks.
Refunds: 3.2% of sales come back as refunds.
Sales run-rate: $6,430 in sales per 14-day settlement period.
Advertising: $462 per 14 days, deducted from each settlement.
Holiday seasonality: Nov ×1.30Dec ×1.55Jan ×0.85Applied to projected settlements by the month their period closes.
Settlement timing: Every 14 days, paid out 2 days after the period closes. The latest settlement is already in transit.
Likely range: Starts at ±4% of cumulative inflows and widens by 1.2 points each week.

Supplier, freight and payroll amounts average the last three Mercury payments; subscriptions use their list price.

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